The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index declined in March, dropping to 105.72 from an upwardly revised 105.84 in February, according to data released last week.
The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite indicator designed to forecast future payroll employment trends. When the index rises, job growth typically follows. A decline signals that payroll gains are likely to slow or turn negative in the coming months.
“Job seekers continue to face a challenging market,” said Mitchell Barnes, economist at The Conference Board. “This is evident in the ETI as several components moderated in March. Overall, the US economy has remained surprisingly resilient, but rising geopolitical uncertainty may contribute to ongoing employer hesitancy to add more workers.”
Several key components showed mixed signals in March. The share of consumers who report that “jobs are hard to get,” drawn from The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey, climbed to 21.5 percent. That figure reflects a five-percentage-point increase since March 2025. Meanwhile, the share of small firms reporting that jobs are “not able to be filled right now” fell by one percentage point to 32 percent. The share of involuntary part-time workers rose to 16.5 percent in March, although that measure remains below the 19.4 percent recorded in December.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance continued their downward trend, falling to 207,800 in March compared with the 2025 average of 226,450. Employment in the temporary-help services industry posted a marginal gain and has now increased in three of the last five months. Industrial production and real manufacturing and trade sales also held steady in their most recent readings.
The March decline in the index resulted from negative contributions from five of its eight components: the ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers, the percentage of firms with positions not able to fill right now, the percentage of respondents who say they find jobs hard to get, industrial production, and real manufacturing and trade sales. Three components provided positive contributions: initial claims for unemployment insurance, job openings, and the number of employees hired by the temporary-help industry.
The eight components that make up the Employment Trends Index are: the percentage of respondents who say they find jobs hard to get (from the Consumer Confidence Survey), initial claims for unemployment insurance, the percentage of firms with positions not able to fill right now (from the National Federation of Independent Business), the number of employees hired by the temporary-help industry, the ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers, job openings, industrial production, and real manufacturing and trade sales.
The Conference Board releases the Employment Trends Index each month on the Monday following the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment situation report. The full data series and technical notes are available on the organization’s website.
The latest reading comes as the broader labor market shows signs of softening even as the overall economy has demonstrated resilience. Economists will be watching the April employment report closely for confirmation of any slowdown in hiring.
