The latest data from The Conference Board reveals a troubling trend for the US economy, as the Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by 0.3% in June 2025, settling at 98.8 (2016=100). This decline follows a period of stagnation in May, which was revised upward from an initial report of a 0.1% decrease. Notably, the LEI has dropped by 2.8% in the first half of 2025, signifying a sharper contraction compared to the 1.3% decline seen in the second half of 2024.
Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager for Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board, commented on the situation, saying, “The US LEI fell further in June. The stock price rally has provided some support; however, it has not been sufficient to counteract low consumer expectations, weak manufacturing orders, and a continued rise in initial claims for unemployment insurance. The LEI’s six-month growth rate is weakening, with a diffusion index remaining below 50, which signals a recession for the third consecutive month.”
While the indicators present concerning signs, The Conference Board does not predict an official recession yet. However, economic growth is anticipated to significantly slow down in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP projected to grow by only 1.6%. Factors such as increasing tariffs are expected to exert further pressure in the latter half of the year, as consumer spending may decline due to elevated prices.
In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) showed a slight improvement, rising by 0.3% in June 2025 to reach 115.1 (2016 = 100). This marks an increase after remaining unchanged in both May and April. Over the first half of the year, the CEI experienced a 0.8% rise, although this growth rate has slowed from 1.0% in the previous six months. All four components of the coincident index—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—demonstrated improvements in June.
Meanwhile, the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) remained steady at 119.9 (2016=100) for June 2025 after a 0.4% increase in May. It registered a positive six-month growth rate of 1.4% from December 2024 to June 2025, recovering from a previous decline of 0.8% from June to December 2024.
As we move further into 2025, the mixed signals from these economic indicators highlight the complexities of the current financial landscape, suggesting both challenges and areas of resilience moving forward.
